Energy Demand | ||
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The two main factors which will lead
to greatly
increased world-wide demand for energy (especially electricity)
during the
next half-century are:
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The population of the developing world is predicted to increase from its current value of four billion to over eight billion by 2050, at which time it will comprise of almost ninety percent of the world population. Predictions of per capita economic growth for the less-developed countries cannot be made with any confidence, but the strength of the trend is indisputable.
The average person in the less-developed countries currently consumes only one sixth of the energy consumed by the average person in Western Europe or Japan. Doubling of per capita energy consumption in the less developed countries over the next 50 years would correspond to only a very modest degree of economic development. Yet, combined with the predicted population increase, it would lead to a two to threefold increase in world energy consumption. The actual increase in demand may be expected to be even greater. For example, there will be increased demand from economic growth in the developed countries. Improvements will undoubtedly occur in the efficiency with which energy is utilised, but in the face of the expected increases in demand, these could only have relatively minor impact. Fusion has the advantage when the costs associated with safety and environmental concerns are examined. Such costs comprise the costs of any harm done and the costs of complying with measures designed to prevent harm being done. Fusion's inherent advantages in this area and the transparent demonstrability of such advantages, imply that fusion power plants would have no significant associated costs of either type. Fossil fuels are at the opposite extreme. The costs of global climatic change and acidic pollution are likely to be very high. So also will be the costs of complying with measures designed to limit the emissions responsible for the harm. A variety of such measures may be envisaged, but it is understood that for fossil fuels "in the long term, action will inevitably have to include increases, achieved by taxation or other means, in the relative prices of energy and fuel". For fission,
given the appropriate regulatory
environment and safety culture, the
expected costs of harm done are known
to be small. The real problem in
developed countries is the costs associated
with complying with measures
needed to secure public acceptance. Public
concern, and the associated
compliance costs, may increase if it becomes
necessary for fission to
replace fossil fuels on a large scale all over
the
world. |